FROM THE EDITOR Don’t bet the house Ken Clark Editor-in-Chief The NFL preview issue of Sports Il- lustrated picked the Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl. Expert analysis even estimated the final score: Cardi- nals 40, Steelers 37. Well, guess what? To the dismay of the hard-working staff at Heldt Lumber Company “Arizona’s Best Lumberyard” (that’s the slogan of the company, not an official endorsement from HBSDealer), and other Arizona businesses, the Cardinals will not make it to the Super Bowl. They’re not even going to have a winning record. This shows how difficult it is to “look into the seeds of time and say which grain will grow and which will not,” as Banquo told the witches in “The Tragedy of Macbeth.” Take residential construction fore- casts. Back in January at the 2016 International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas, economists from the Na- tional Association of Home Builders Total starts (2010–2016) (in thousands) HARDWARE + BUILDING SUPPLY crunched the numbers into an am- bitious expectation: 2015 total starts would hit 1,257,000, a 13.1% jump over 2014. Single-family starts were seen as the driver and were expected to hit 840,000, an even more impres- sive jump of 17.4%. I probably wasn’t the only attendee in the audience who thought: “Let’s not be greedy. Just give us dou- ble-digit growth right now, and we’ll take it and run with it.” Unfortunately, we weren’t offered that option. Housing starts for December will not be released by government statisti- cians until the middle of January. But if we go ahead and make a conserva- tive assumption that December 2016 will look a like December 2015, then here’s what residential construction would give us for the year: Total housing starts: 1,161,500, up 4.5%. Single-family housing starts: 778,200, up 8.9%. Not bad, but not double digits. So far this decade, total housing starts have increased 5.9% in 2010; 3.7% in 2011; 28% in 2012; 18.5% in 2013; 8.5% in 2014; 10.8% in 2015; and a projected 4.5% in 2016. The NAHB will release its 2017 housing starts forecast at the Builders’ Show in Orlando, Florida, this month. Typically, this economic presentation is well-attended and impressive. The research is thorough, and optimism is usually well-founded on the concepts of heavy pent-up demand, household formation, historically low interest rates and housing affordability. We shall see what their forecast holds for 2017 when we get to Or- lando. As for me, if high-single-digit growth In residential construction is offered, I will take it. And run with it. connect with us HBS DEALER Hardware + Building Supply Dealer A LEBHAR-FRIEDMAN® PUBLICATION 150 W. 30th St., New York, N.Y. 10001 hbsdealer.com EDITORIAL OFFICES Headquarters 150 W 30th St., New York, N.Y. 10001 Editor in Chief — Ken Clark, [email protected] (212-756-5139) Associate Editor — Steph Koyfman, [email protected] (212-756-5244) Desk Editor — Zachary Wiley, [email protected] (212-756-5140) Editorial Inquiries: Direct questions to Editor in Chief Ken Clark. ADVERTISING SALES/PRODUCTION Midwest & Southeastern States Senior Regional Manager — Amy Platter, [email protected] (773-294-8598) Northeast and Great Lakes States Regional Manager — Greg Cole, [email protected] (317-775-2206) Production Manager — Jim Lynch, [email protected] (212-756-5059) Media Production Assistant — Betty Dong, [email protected] (212-756-5134) Director of Audience Development — Linda Moi, [email protected] (212-756-5262) Home Improvement Research Institute 10117 Princess Palm Avenue, Tampa, FL 33610 Phone: 813-627-6770 Member line: 813-627-6750 Fax: 813-627-7063 HIRI.org Managing Director — Pam Heidel Research Insight Analyst — Elizabeth Nicholas Marketing & Administrative Coordinator — Christina Sacher-Brown Spain c/o Ediciones Y Estudios S.L. Enrique Larreta, 5, 1°, 28036 Madrid, Spain Tel: 34-90-202-75-13 Fax: 34-91-315-56-28 LEBHAR-FRIEDMAN, INC. Founder (1900-1981) Arnold D. Friedman Chairman of the Board — J. Roger Friedman President & CEO — Randall Friedman Vice President of Finance — Mike Sogan President, Retail Group — John Kenlon Hardware + Building Supply Dealer, Drug Store News, Chain Store Age. Circulation List Manager: (203) 456-3338. Permissions: Hardware + Building Supply Dealer SOURCE: COMMERCE DEPARTMENT/NAHB ESTIMATES 8 JANUARY 2017 HARDWARE + BUILDING SUPPLY DEALER HBSDealer.com